Race Predictions

Know what to expect on race day before you get there.

Pro feature - included in the 7-day free trial.

Three scenarios, not one number

Trailia generates three race time predictions for each goal: fastest (everything goes well), most likely (realistic given your current fitness), and slowest (a conservative floor). A single predicted finish time creates false precision. Three scenarios give you a real range to plan around.

Based on 12 weeks of your training

The prediction draws on your last 12 weeks of activity data: volume, intensity distribution, long run progression, and how your body has been responding. It's not a formula applied to a single recent race. It's a read of your actual training trend.

Elevation profile factored in

Trail race times are dominated by elevation, not distance. When you upload a GPX file for your goal race, Trailia uses the course elevation profile directly in the prediction model. A 50K with 3,000m of gain is a very different race from a 50K on flat fire roads, and the predictions reflect that.

Training gaps identified

Beyond the time prediction, Trailia identifies the specific gaps between your current fitness and what the race demands: weekly elevation, long run length, aerobic base, time on feet. Each gap comes with a concrete recommendation for the weeks remaining before race day.

Race day strategy

The prediction also surfaces a suggested race day approach: how to pace the opening miles given the elevation profile, when to expect the hardest sections, and how to manage effort across the full course based on your fitness level.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are the race predictions?

Accuracy improves with more data. The predictions are most reliable when you have a connected device with several weeks of activity history and an uploaded GPX file for the race course. They're directional estimates, not guarantees, and are presented with a confidence level indicator.

Do I need to upload a GPX file to get a prediction?

No, but it helps significantly. Without a GPX file, the prediction uses your goal distance and estimated elevation. With a GPX file, it uses the actual course profile.

Is Race Predictions a Pro feature?

Advanced race predictions are a Pro feature. You can try them free during the 7-day trial.

Can I get predictions for multiple races?

Yes, one prediction per goal race. Pro users can have multiple active goals simultaneously.

What does the confidence level mean?

High confidence means Trailia has enough recent activity data and course information to make a well-supported estimate. Lower confidence typically reflects limited activity history or missing course data.